SNA (Tokyo) — Stung by its first national election loss, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) declared in 1994 hat it would disband all its factions by the end of the year. When popular reformer Junichiro Koizumi became prime minister in 2001, he declared that the era of LDP factions had passed. These precedents should accurately set expectations for what the current declarations about the end of factions will meaningfully achieve—that is, nothing.

That said, there was a genuine prospect that things might be different this time. The public is deeply annoyed with the corruption, and serious legal consequences were entirely possible.

But the Tokyo prosecutors—moved by their own internal calculations which we can reasonably guess at but never be entirely sure of—decided once again to allow conservative powerbrokers to escape their crimes and instead focus on making scapegoats of lesser figures. We are being asked to believe that a number of ruling party accountants, on their initiative and authority, violated campaign finance laws. They certainly weren’t directed to do so by their employers, the LDP faction executives.

Equally incredulously, the reason why no ruling party executive will be indicted is said to be that there is “insufficient evidence” to prove their guilt.

Even if one assumes (not safely) that the prosecutors found no direct evidence of the factional executives engaging in a criminal conspiracy, there is no doubt that ruling party lawmakers have been accepting illegal funds. That is clearly documented. Once again, Japanese prosecutors behave as if taking illegal bribes is not a crime so long as one is a member of the establishment in good standing.

The upshot is that what we seem to be witnessing at this point is not the end of LDP factions, but rather a major realignment of the factional balance of power.

The Abe, Kishida, and Nikai factions have pledged to disband, while those untouched by the current scandal, the Aso, Motegi, and Moriyama factions, do not appear to be following suit. The latest reports at the time of writing indicate that former Prime Minister Taro Aso is dead set against dissolving his faction and let incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida know it. Aso rejects the notion that his faction should be punished when it hasn’t been found to have engaged in wrongdoing in this case. “Kishida accepted the explanation,” reports Kyodo News.

As pathetic as such a response from Kishida might be, he probably has no choice but to go along at this point. He needs Aso’s backing to keep his tenuous grip on the top office, and everyone knows it.

If we presume that things play out along the lines expressed in public at this moment, three LDP factions will disappear and three will remain. We can expect the Aso and Motegi factions to grow in power, and maybe some of the refugees from the Abe faction will create one or more smaller factions. Due to the disrepute that factions have currently gained, the proportion of non-factional LDP lawmakers will probably grow in the immediate term.

But, given time, factions will probably regain their influence, particularly if they continue to shape races for party president and personnel choices for Cabinet posts. Old habits will likely prove hard to shake.

As has been apparent for many decades, reform kabuki can never become actual reform until the LDP is dislodged as the semi-permanent ruling party. There are many obstacles to achieving that reform, but the one which both the Japanese mainstream and the international news media are loath to admit is that one precondition for reform is that Washington stops sabotaging any opposition party which questions the foreign policy of national subservience to US policies.

This article was originally published on January 22, 2023, in the “Japan and the World” newsletter. Become a Shingetsu News supporter on Patreon and receive the newsletter by email each Monday morning.