SNA (Tokyo) — The notion that non-Western powers might band together to resist the depredations of Europe and the United States has been around since the late 19th century, but only now has the power balance shifted to a sufficient degree that the era of Western global dominance is actually coming to an end.

Political leaders in Washington and in European capitals don’t seem to fully comprehend the broader significance of South Africa’s initiative to lay charges of genocide against Israel at the International Criminal Court. In order for such an event to occur, there needed to be a number of preconditions that would not all have been in place in previous decades.

First of all, South Africa would have needed to see the mass murder of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as being something that touches upon their own interests in some way. Live or die, why does South Africa feel a sense of community with a group of Muslim Arabs who live a continent away? What is the common identity that binds them?

Also, even if South Africans feel a tug of sympathy in their hearts, why are they willing to antagonize the world’s leading superpower by bringing this genocide case? With the possible exception of the military-industrial complex, there’s probably no lobby more influential within the United States than the Israel Lobby. And yet, even a little developing nation in Africa no longer fears to directly take them on.

The conceptual roots of the anti-imperial Non-West have been around for many generations. One could point to Jamal al-Din al-Afghani in the late 19th century or Jawaharlal Nehru and the Non-Aligned Movement in the mid-20th century.

Japan too had its opportunities to join, or even lead, the cause of the Non-West through the excitement it created in the colonized world in 1905 by defeating Tsarist Russia, or its short-lived and half-hearted embrace of Pan-Asianism in the early 1940s, or by genuine adherence to the principles of the 1973 Nikaido Statement, or, most recently, by the adoption of Yukio Hatoyama’s vision for an East Asian Community in 2009.

Indeed, there have been many theorists and ideology-makers who decried Western Imperialism but weren’t quite in a powerful enough position to actually defeat it. Many of the figures associated with these movements were taken down by covert CIA plots, direct American military interventions, or through their own internal divisions and rivalries.

What is changing now is the actual balance of power. Washington and the West still have the might to prevail in some of these struggles, but increasingly the Non-West is finding its own voice and developing its ability to successfully resist.

It is worth pointing out once again that the United States has so far come out the loser in every major war it has fought this century—this is Iraq and Afghanistan primarily, but Washington looks set for (at least partial) political defeats in Ukraine and Gaza as well. Despite possessing a military force that no other nation is even close to matching—and despite occupying military bases around the world—American leaders are no longer bending international developments to their will. They are clearly losing control of the global agenda; just reacting to the initiatives of others.

Economic power underlay military power. For all of its lingering challenges and its unevenness, African nations—to stick with them—are now growing faster than Western powers. Last year, the African economy is believed to have grown by 3.3%, while this year it is projected to grow by 3.5%, according to UN estimates. Meanwhile, Europe’s economy is expected to grow by only 1.3%, and the US economy by 1.6%. Developing nations are gradually catching up.

A more qualitative reason to believe that the West is in sharp decline is to observe the routinely self-defeating nature of US foreign policy. With every major issue, Washington asserts its own position, expects everyone else to follow its line without question, and then loudly denounces anyone who resists as being either immoral or wicked. America’s easy confidence of the 20th century has been replaced by a shriller and more hysterical tone in the present day.

The newly-emerging second superpower, China, takes an entirely different diplomatic posture in global diplomacy. It emphasizes non-interference in the affairs of other sovereign nations and the centrality of the United Nations. It presents itself as a partner to developing nations, in particular by assisting them with infrastructure projects that might drive long-term economic growth. Part of Beijing’s pitch is that, unlike the West, they are not trying to export their political system to other nations or to offer hypocritical sermons telling others what they must do.

Most people in the West remain blind to Beijing’s genuine appeal to the leaders of the developing world. For them, Western democracy is righteous and good (superior), and Communist China is morally bad and despicable (inferior). End of story. They don’t want to believe anything more than that—they are unable to overcome their own self-righteousness or groupthink and to see political facts and global realities that are standing right there in front of them, should they care to open their eyes.

As one of many data points demonstrating this reality, consider the difference between Washington’s response to South Africa’s decision to bring genocide charges against Israel and Beijing’s stance.

Asked about South Africa’s case at a press conference, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby declared the court submission “counterproductive and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever.” For his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken contended that it “distracts the world” from more productive efforts and that “the charge of genocide is meritless.”

When China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin was asked at a press conference about his government’s response to South Africa’s initiative, he responded: “We noted the application. The ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict has killed more than 22,000 people in Gaza already, most of whom were civilians. The daily civilian death toll remains above one hundred. This must not continue. We oppose any action that violates international law. We urge parties to the conflict to implement the resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, carry out a full ceasefire at once, and stop the collective punishment against the people of Gaza.”

It’s not difficult to figure out which diplomatic approach will be better appreciated in the wider world, beyond the reach of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The Non-West has long been sick and tired of Washington’s hectoring, and with the US superpower’s ongoing cascade of failures in this century, changes in the international economic balance of power, and a rising alternative superpower offering support, they are increasingly in a position to do something about it.

This article was originally published on January 15, 2023, in the “Japan and the World” newsletter. Become a Shingetsu News supporter on Patreon and receive the newsletter by email each Monday morning.