SNA (Tokyo) — As he desperately tries to survive the ruling party’s political funds scandal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida declared that he “will act as a fireball at the forefront of the Liberal Democratic Party and work to restore the trust of the people.” Most analysts, however, see this administration in the midst of a spectacular flameout.

On the one hand, sweeping all Abe Faction lawmakers out of the Cabinet and the ruling party executive ranks does demonstrate that Kishida understands the gravity of the slush fund scandal. Among the prominent figures sacked in the purge were Chief Cabinet Minister Hirokazu Matsuno, Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, Agriculture Minister Ichiro Miyashita, Internal Affairs Minister Junji Suzuki, Chairman of the LDP Research Council Koichi Hagiuda, parliamentary affairs chief Tsuyoshi Takagi, and LDP Secretary-General of the House of Councillors Hiroshige Seko.

The dramatic nature of this action was fully justified and an appropriate measure to try to save his administration.

But even this muscular response appears to be too little, too late for the prime minister, and there are several factors which suggest that Kishida too will get incinerated.

First of all, it is by no means certain that illicit political funding practices are neatly limited to the Abe Faction; four other factions–including the one that Kishida headed until last week–are also under investigation. If it proves that some of these other factions engaged in wrongdoing, then the political firewall which the prime minister is endeavoring to construct could come tumbling down.

Kishida’s more fundamental problem, however, is that he has been Japan’s national leader for over two years now, and no one really believes that such a centrist and consensus-oriented politician is really going to suddenly reveal himself as the fireball of reform. Perhaps if he had acted with similar boldness at the time of the Unification Church influence scandal, then he might have been able to pull this off. At this point, however, he is too much of a known quantity, and his apparent boldness is revealed for what it really is–the desperation of a man whose house is on fire.

In some public opinion polls, support for the Kishida administration has fallen to horrific levels below 20%. That’s not simply the danger zone; it’s a ruinous political hell from which no prime minister has ever before escaped.

But perhaps the clearest indication that Kishida is toast is the reports that numerous ruling party lawmakers declined offers to join the Kishida Cabinet. Yoshimasa Hayashi, who is coming aboard as chief cabinet secretary, was apparently the fourth or fifth person whom Kishida asked. It would seem that the conventional wisdom among ruling party lawmakers is that their own ambitions will be better served by keeping their distance from the current inferno.

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