SNA (Tokyo) — The US political and media establishment is beginning to wake up to the fact that, having lost the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War, it is now on the path toward losing its proxy war in Ukraine as well.

The establishment’s enthusiasm drained over the summer as it became increasingly clear that the much-anticipated “spring offensive” launched by Ukrainian forces suffered high casualties and made little progress.

The once-ubiquitous Ukrainian flags on social media accounts began to thin out, news media coverage of the war began to slip into the back pages, and, since the eruption of the Israel-Hamas mass bloodletting almost a month ago, Ukraine struggles to receive much sustained interest at all.

An article published by Time magazine this week appears to have opened the floodgates, allowing into the mainstream more realistic assessments of the dimming prospects for the US proxy war. Previously, suggestions that Kyiv wasn’t winning the conflict were confined to those on the political margins; these voices would predictably be accused of being “Putin apologists” should they have the temerity to offer critical analysis in public.

The Time article, however, revealed that senior figures within the Ukrainian government themselves now recognize that they are not winning the war.

The Ukrainian war effort has become completely dependent on US aid. While the Biden administration has asked the US Congress to authorize a fresh US$61 billion support package, it is attempting to link this legislation with Israel aid and border security funds.

Ukrainian leaders fully comprehend that this is “an acknowledgment that, on its own, Ukraine aid no longer stands much of a chance in Washington.”

The latest Gallup poll shows that US Democrats are alone in remaining hawkish on pursuing the proxy war–44% of independents and 62% of Republicans now say that the United States “is doing too much to help Ukraine.”

Moreover, even as the flow of weapons and money from the US government is becoming uncertain, the Time article also hints that–having suffered tens of thousands of dead on the battlefield–Ukrainian forces may already be in the early stages of collapse.

The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now about 43 years old, reflecting the true scope of grinding slaughter experienced by the nation’s young people. The Time article states directly that, even if the flow of US military weapons is maintained, Ukrainian officials recognize that the country doesn’t have a sufficient number of troops to fully utilize them.

Another clear sign of Ukraine’s failing war effort is that senior government officials in Kyiv now admit that “people are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.” Those in control of state resources might be beginning to realize that their fight has become a lost cause and they are taking what they can.

Twenty months since the Russian invasion in February 2022, about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. While Russia has also suffered greatly in the war, it’s population is more than three times larger than Ukraine’s and its national economy is in much better shape.

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