SNA (Glasgow) — Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro appears to be plotting a comeback, but his prospects for a return to power–should he not be willing to wait four years until the next election–will very much depend upon who occupies the White House in the years ahead and how deep his support runs within his country’s military.

Shortly before Lula was inaugurated, Bolsonaro flew to Florida and has since been living quietly in a suburban area. Bolsonaro says that he will end his informal exile in the United States next month, risking the possibility of arrest upon his return.

For his part, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva declared just last week that he is certain that Bolsonaro “actively participated and is still trying to participate” in an illegal plot to nullify last year’s election results and regain power through a military coup.

No one doubts that Brazilian society itself is deeply divided. Lula’s electoral victory last October was a narrow one, garnering 50.8% of the popular vote to Bolsonaro’s 49.2%. Tensions were intensified by Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede his loss, as well as his supporters’ unproven allegations of irregularities and, in some cases, open calls for the army to intervene.

Despite concerns about possible disruptions, Lula’s inauguration ceremony proceeded peacefully. But then, on January 8, supporters of Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the capital city of Brasilia and engaged in widespread vandalism of national assets. While no one is believed to have been killed in the day’s events, more than eighty people suffered injuries.

Lula took a tough line on the insurrection, vowing that those who had committed illegal acts would be found and punished. This was followed by over 1,500 arrests. Among those arrested were some who had been involved for weeks in the sit-in outside Brazil’s army headquarters demanding a military takeover of the country.

The most high profile person arrested was former Justice Minister Anderson Torres. He is accused of colluding with the Brasilia rioters and allowing them to pass police lines.

Aside from the arrest of his former Cabinet minister Torres, no other direct connection between Bolsonaro and the January 8 uprising has yet been elucidated by the authorities.

However, other alleged plots implicating Bolsonaro have come to light in the intervening weeks dealing with the period shortly before he left office. This evidence has been deemed strong enough that Brazil’s Supreme Court approved a full investigation into the former president’s potential culpability in trying to short-circuit the democratic transfer of power.

The position of the United States is expected to have a strong influence on the outcome in the months and years ahead.

Since last autumn the Biden administration made clear that it supports the democratic process and opposes the idea of a military coup in Brazil.

In the run up to October’s elections, the US government repeatedly cautioned Bolsonaro to respect the election results, whatever they might be. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns even traveled to Brazil and warned key figures of the regime in face-to-face meetings not to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the polls.

Immediately after the January 8 uprising, President Joe Biden invited Lula to the White House. When that meeting was held about a month later, Biden confirmed his country’s “unwavering support for Brazil’s democracy.”

There are clear indications, however, that Biden’s position is not universally shared within Washington, and that should a Republican Party administration return to the White House in January 2025, it would likely be much more favorable to Bolsonaro’s cause.

This is clearly the case with the Republican frontrunner, former President Donald Trump. Posting on Truth Social, Trump explicitly endorsed Bolsonaro’s reelection bid and observed approvingly that there was “no other leader who called me more.” He also noted proudly that the former Brazilian leader is sometimes referred to as “the Trump of the Tropics.”

Other US conservatives have also lionized Bolsonaro.

Last November, a meeting of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), one of the most influential organizations of the American right, made a point of hosting Eduardo Bolsonaro, a son of the then-outgoing president and effectively his proxy at the event. Rightwing activist Steve Bannon used the occasion to declare his belief that Lula’s victory had only been achieved through rigging the polls. The younger Bolsonaro chipped in by declaring that the US and Brazilian right “are together in the same boat.”

Other conservative organizations have also shown interest in the plight of their ideological brothers down south. For instance, Jair Bolsonaro himself became the headline act for a Florida event organized by Turning Point USA, a conservative youth organization.

Nevertheless, for Bolsonaro to actually return to power before the next elections are held in late 2026, he would need more than just a green light from Washington and support from the street, but also the backing of the military.

The intentions of the army command in this respect are uncertain.

On the one hand, concerns that the military might accept the calls from the Bolsonaro supporters camped out in front of their headquarters and prevent Lula’s accession to office proved to be exaggerated. The troops stayed in their barracks and allowed the leftwing president to assume power, just as Washington had demanded.

But since coming to office, Lula revealed that the army’s loyalty is indeed a matter of concern for him. After the security failures of January 8, he replaced his chief of the army and fired about fifty senior officers. He also declared that “all the military involved in the coup attempt will be punished, no matter the rank.”

This clearly indicates that the president himself believes that some elements of the army were involved in the insurrection.

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