SNA (New York) — Ethiopia’s northern province of Tigray is losing ground in its brutal conflict with the central government, placing both the rebel region’s administration and its civilian population in severe jeopardy.

Even if peace talks proceed, the chances of an equitable agreement between the sides appears to be slipping away.

At the beginning of this week, Ethiopian central government forces seized Tigray’s strategically-vital city of Shire, leaving wide open the route to the regional capital of Mekelle. This event has dramatically weakened the Tigrayan administration’s leverage as a negotiating party.

The city’s capture prompted UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to declare on Twitter that “the situation in Ethiopia is spiraling out of control. The social fabric is being ripped apart and civilians are paying a horrific price.” He added, “hostilities in Tigray must end now—including the immediate withdrawal and disengagement of Eritrean armed forces from Ethiopia.”

Tigray is Ethiopia’s northernmost province and home to ethnic Tigrayans, who make up about 6% of the nation’s population. Armed conflict broke out in late 2020 following decades of political discord between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the region’s de facto political and military authority, and the central government.

Addis Ababa’s forces have maintained a brutal blockade of food, electricity, and humanitarian aid to Tigray since the conflict began.

An opportunistic Eritrea–a neighboring nation now seemingly in alliance with Addis Ababa–in August began launching large offensives against Tigray.

Famine, war atrocities, and crimes against humanity have become commonplace on all sides since the conflict began.

Last week, African Union (AU) Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat repeated calls for an “immediate, unconditional ceasefire and the resumption of humanitarian services.” So far, the AU’s efforts to broker lasting peace have not been successful, in spite of achieving a promising five-month ceasefire earlier this year.

The most recent attempt to arrange talks in South Africa collapsed for unclear reasons related to “logistics and other issues.”

An official statement from the Tigray External Affairs Office, the rebel regime’s de facto foreign ministry, explained that Tigray had not been properly informed about the details, including security arrangements, as well as who would represent each side.

For its part, Addis Ababa appears not to be very keen on a negotiated settlement at this time unless it involves a complete surrender of the rebel forces.

Ethiopia’s UN Ambassador Taye Atsle Selassie contested the UN secretary-general’s characterization of the current situation being “out of control” with heavy civilian casualties. The ambassador tweeted at the beginning of this week that “none of the selected and overly exaggerated assertions reflects the reality.”

Going further, he stated that such allegations “[undermine] the AU-led peace efforts.”

Last month, Ethiopia’s central government also rejected the findings of a UN human rights report, which had documented war crimes taking place in the conflict. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the investigators had “no competence or proper appreciation of the conflict.” The ministry went on to accuse the UN report of being “politically motivated” and engaging in “[the weaponization of] human rights for political pressure.”

The conflict finally appears to be gaining significant international attention. Not only the UN secretary-general, but also Western countries are now speaking up. On October 12, a joint statement was issued by the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands calling for the immediate end to the war, asking both sides to pursue “a negotiated settlement through peace talks under an African Union-led process.”

The joint statement also condemned the involvement of Eritrea’s military forces, calling on them “to cease their military operations and withdraw from northern Ethiopia.”

Getachew Reda, principle advisor to Tigray’s self-proclaimed president, welcomed the Western countries’ joint statement on Twitter as “a rather serious effort,” but nevertheless he criticized its language as representing “boilerplate bothside-ism.”

Eritrea borders on Ethiopia and is located directly north of the Tigray region. While it has been involved in the Ethiopian civil war for many years, until recently its incursions were on a small scale. However, on September 17, this neighboring nation fully mobilized its reserves, signaling its intention to intensify its intervention. Estimates in Western diplomatic circles suggest that there could be as many as 60,000 Eritrean troops entering the conflict within Ethiopia’s national borders.

Many recent developments, including fall of Shire, suggest a sharp erosion of the TPLF’s military position.

Despite Addis Ababa’s contentions, there is also plenty of reason to believe that the lives of millions of civilians are in imminent danger. The United Nations estimates that about three-quarters of the region’s population–around 5.2 million people–have already been put at risk of starvation due to the central government’s blockade.

Moreover, research from Ghent University suggests that upwards of 100,000 people may have already died in the manmade famine.

The United Nations contends that civilians have been directly targeted for killings, torture, and sexual violence. Rape as a weapon of war has been perpetrated on “a staggering scale” according to Kaari Betty Murungi, a Kenyan who served as the chairwoman of the UN’s International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia.

She added that the manner of the acts, and the language used, by the central government forces suggests “an intent to destroy Tigrayan ethnicity,” which, if verified, could form grounds for charges of genocide.

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