SNA (Sydney) — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the military, political, and economic confrontation which resulted from it has led to a food supply crisis which is expanding throughout the developing world.

Russia supplies vital inputs for fertilizers. For example, 11% of the world’s urea and 48% of its ammonium nitrate come from this nation. When combined with its ally, Belarus, the two countries provide roughly 40% of the world’s potash exports.

Since the invasion began in February, futures prices for urea fertilizer have risen by 32%, according to Gro Intelligence, a climate and agriculture data platform.

Moreover, the World Bank reports that fertilizer prices more than tripled in the two-year period from the beginning of FY2020 and the end of FY2021.

Poorer nations are being hit grievously by these price hikes. In some regions, especially in Africa, it has become a factor that has expanded mass hunger and even starvation.

In West African countries such as Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire, fertilizer prices have risen by more than 50% since February, according to IDH, a Dutch nonprofit organization focused on sustainable economics in developing nations.

The Financial Times reported last month that consumer confidence and purchasing power in Ghana, particularly among farmers, has plummeted, noting that a survey conducted by Farmerline, an African agritech company, “showed more than half of the 178 growers questioned had not applied fertilizer to their fields at all this year… while only a tenth had finished full application.”

Concern is even deeper regarding the Horn of Africa, where a long drought and local conflicts have already created disastrous humanitarian conditions.

The World Food Programme estimates that cereal production in 2022 will decrease by up to 16% year-on-year due to the higher fertilizer prices.

ReliefWeb, a humanitarian information portal, published a projection that “there is a likelihood [that] the number of food insecure people in the region [will rise] by nearly 6-7 million by the end of the year.” The countries likely to be hit the hardest are Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan.

The impact of the higher prices, however, is not limited to Africa; Latin America is also likely to be hit by its consequences.

The Rabobank Group, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company, warns that “Brazil’s 2023 soybean harvest might be the first crop to experience direct negative impacts from Russia’s war in Ukraine.” At least 40% of the country’s potash is sourced from Belarus and Russia. Supply shortages in nitrogen, “the most critical nutrient for wheat and corn in Latin America,” will also pose significant problems unless other supplies can be found.

There are some efforts underway to create alternative supplies of fertilizers.

Aliko Dangote, the richest man in Africa, opened a 500-hectare urea fertilizer plant in Lagos, Nigeria earlier this year, at a cost of US$2.5 billion. According to the Dangote Group’s website, the “Dangote Fertiliser complex was established to produce 3 million metric tons per annum of urea fertilizer in phase 1.”

It remains to be seen, however, to what degree such efforts can mitigate the current crisis.

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