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South Korea’s Kill Chain Strategy

SNA (London) — South Korea’s new President Yoon Suk-Yeol is reinstating his nation’s “Kill Chain” strategy, which aims to deter an attack from North Korea by brandishing a highly aggressive military doctrine.

Kill Chain was initiated ten years ago under the Lee Myung-Bak government following North Korea’s 2010 sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan, in which 46 sailors died, as well as the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in which several civilians were killed.

Yoon has re-endorsed the controversial strategy which calls for “preemptive” strikes against North Korean missile launch areas. Crucially, the strategy also focuses on eliminating the high-ranking leadership of North Korea–its chain of command. The initial white paper in 2012 stated that “the [Republic of Korea] military will decisively strike not only the origin of enemy provocation, but also the command and support forces behind the provocation.”

Yoon’s government has also announced its intention to expand the nation’s arsenal, including ballistic missiles, F-35 stealth fighters, and new submarines–all of this intended to “send a message” to Kim Jong-Un, the North Korean leader.

Kill Chain relies on quick military action by South Korea. Seoul would have to make a nearly immediate decision whether or not to authorize missile and artillery strikes. Kill Chain differs from the previous strategy, which envisioned airstrikes needing more time to develop. It is thought that the more rapid missile and artillery strikes might serve to reduce civilian casualties.

Global Hawk, a high-altitude surveillance drone, is expected to play the key role of identifying potential threats and helping to direct the attacks to their targets.

Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, said the plan is “the most plausible route to nuclear war in Korea,” but, at the same time, “the plan most likely to succeed.”

Despite the risk, Yoon is adamant that Kill Chain is the most effective way to protect his country against North Korea.

Yoon also advocates large-scale joint drills with the US military, including the ongoing “Ulchi Freedom Shield” exercises, which are the largest since 2017.

On the other hand, critics point out that Kill Chain might create additional instability rather than provide the extra protection that Yoon intends. For example, the reinstated doctrine may encourage Kim Jong-Un to respond with countermeasures such as giving lower-level commanders greater autonomy to launch missiles. Pyongyang may regard such decentralization as a guarantee that North Korea can strike back even if its command-and-control functions are impaired.

In the context of the threat of nuclear war, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned at the August 6 memorial ceremony for the Hiroshima bombing that “humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation from nuclear annihilation.”

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