SNA (Yokohama) — Although more than ten years have passed, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster still haunts Taiwan’s debate on activating nuclear power plants.

Currently, three nuclear plants are operating on the main island of Taiwan. The public will vote this Saturday, December 18, on whether or not to reactivate a fourth nuclear power plant through a referendum pushed by the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT).

The operation of the fourth nuclear power plant–also known as the Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant–was initially approved in 1999, but has yet to be executed due to numerous operation suspensions.  The 2011 Fukushima disaster exercised a major impact on public opinion. Many Taiwanese worried that they could undergo a similar catastrophe if a significant earthquake struck their own seismically-active island.

Since then, the momentum of the anti-nuclear movement strengthened, and the slogan “No Nukes, No More Fukushimas” spread widely.

However, after experiencing several major power outages in the past few years, the stability of Taiwan’s electricity supply has been increasingly questioned, and some voices have advocated a reconsideration of the role of nuclear power.

Currently, the three operating nuclear power plants account for around 10% of Taiwan’s electricity supply. The supporters of the “yes” vote on referendum believe that by expanding the use of nuclear power, the island will become more energy secure without having to endure expensive new environmental costs.

An outspoken advocate for the reactivation of the fourth nuclear power plant, Tsung-Kuang Yeh, engineering professor at National Tsing Hua University, argues that the referendum’s passage would benefit Taiwan in the long run. He points out that the electricity demand has increased over the past five years, and because renewable energy sources can only contribute to around 5% of the overall electricity needs, the only way other alternative to meet demand is cranking up the energy generated from thermal power plants, thus increasing CO2 emissions.

Yeh concludes that if the government aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, Taiwan will eventually need to substitute thermal energy with both nuclear and renewable energy, and reactivating the fourth nuclear power plant is a necessary step forward.

Taiwanese public sentiment, however, remains skeptical about nuclear power, and Japan’s experience just a decade ago at Fukushima has not been forgotten.

When President Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected in January 2020, she even promised to replace the three operating nuclear power plants with other energy sources by 2025, thereby eliminating completely the risk of a nuclear accident.

Consistent with her campaign pledge, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party is urging voters to vote “no” in Saturday’s referendum.

Their main argument is that the geographical location of Taiwan is not suitable for hosting nuclear energy. Like Japan, the main island of Taiwan is located in a seismically active zone. In fact, three major earthquakes have occurred in Taiwan in the past decade. For this reason, the “no” camp contends that if a nuclear disaster happens in Taiwan, the consequences would be far worse than Fukushima due to the higher density of population on the island.

According to a National Chung Hsing University simulation, more than seven million people from northern Taiwan could be forced to evacuate if a nuclear meltdown occurred at the fourth nuclear power plant.

Additionally, like Japan, Taiwan currently has no solution to the problem of nuclear waste storage.

Since the 1980s, nuclear waste produced by the three operating nuclear plants has been stored on Orchid Island, where thousands of indigenous peoples live. The related safety and human rights concerns remain unresolved.

The “no” camp points out that no mayors in Taiwan are willing to provide storage space for nuclear waste.

If the referendum passes, the direction of energy policy will shift to some degree from reliance on thermal power to nuclear power, while gradually building up renewable energy sources like solar and wind. On the other hand, if the government and the “no” camp prevails, the challenge of quickly phasing out nuclear power with renewable resources will become all the more urgent and challenging.

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