Iran Guardian Council

SNA (Mashhad) — The next Iranian presidential election is set to take place on June 18—this Friday—and more than ever, politicians and analysts have been expressing opinions about republicanism and the crucial role of people in the electoral process.

After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran developed a unique model of governance called the “Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist” (Velayat-e Faqih). In this system, the Assembly of Experts puts a leader at the head of the government as Supreme Leader (Vali Faghih) and the people directly elect the president, the members of parliament, and the members of the Assembly of Experts.

All candidates have to be qualified by the twelve-member Guardian Council—whose own members are appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and six leading Islamic jurists—to run in the elections.

In other words, the democratic nature of the Iranian political system is constrained by the Supreme Leader’s decisions, particularly in regard to the candidate qualifications process.

This time, the Guardian Council carried out extensive disqualifications of presidential candidates, including prominent figures such as former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri, and reformist critic Mostafa Tajzadeh.

The list of candidates allowed to participate in the race includes former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, former Revolutionary Guard officer Mohsen Rezaei, former parliamentarian and publisher Alireza Zakani, parliamentarian Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Former Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, and Former Isfahan Governor Mohsen Mehralizadeh.

Among these candidates, only the latter two are regarded as being moderates or reformers.

However, it is believed that the Guardian Council is trying to steer the election to a victory for the conservative Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi.

Many observers believe that voter turnout may be the key in determining whether or not Raisi gets elected. It is thought that a low turnout would benefit the conservative candidate, and the extensive disqualifications may have initially been aimed at reducing public enthusiasm for the process.

Some hardliners have publicly insisted that this isn’t a problem. Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei recently stated that “according to the law, low turnout will not create a problem for the credibility and the legitimacy of the elections.”

Mohsen Araki, a member of the Assembly of Experts, added, “The meaning of elections is that people declare that they are obedient to the regime, and they elect an executive arm for assisting the Supreme Leader.”

Not everyone accepts such views.

Former President Mohammad Khatami responded to the extensive list of candidate disqualifications by saying, “When an important part of society is deprived of having their desired candidates, the criterion of the people’s vote is being denied. In this way, the republicanism of the regime fades day by day and it will be put under threat.”

The extensive disqualifications also received strong reactions online.

An online campaign called “No to the Islamic Republic” was launched by the opposition, aiming to boycott the election. The hashtag #No2IR has trended, and many prominent figures such as Iran’s former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi have supported this campaign from abroad.

Some opposition politicians and parties have indeed announced their intention to boycott the election.

Such opposition calls to boycott and thus to reduce voter turnout have not been welcomed by the regime, even if it may accord with their initial objectives. While Raisi’s chances of being elected may be increased by a boycott, the regime is—despite public statements to the contrary—sensitive to the possibility that low turnout could undermine the legitimacy of the entire political system.

The Iranian police have thus threatened the leaders of the boycott campaign, with Police Chief Hossein Ashtari declaring, “Iran’s police will confront those who are inviting people not to vote in the next presidential election.”

The two issues that are under most scrutiny in this final week of the presidential election campaign are whether or not one of the two reformist candidates allowed in the race can consolidate support and change the dynamics, and the matter of voter turnout.

The latest poll of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) found that only 34.1% of Iranians say they will “definitely participate” in the election.

The last Iranian parliament election had a turnout of 42%, a figure that was regarded as being disappointingly low. By contrast, the two presidential elections in 2013 and 2017 that brought moderate President Hassan Rouhani to office both achieved voter turnout rates above 70%.

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