New Bloom (Taipei) — The Biden administration surprised over the weekend, issuing a statement on Taiwan through the US State Department on Sunday in response to an incursion of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone by thirteen Chinese warplanes the previous day. The statement expressed concern regarding “the pattern of ongoing PRC attempts to intimidate its neighbors, including Taiwan.”

Near-daily incursions by Chinese military aircraft into airspace near Taiwan have been ongoing over the last year, something that is thought to be a response to strengthening US-Taiwan ties and increased international attention on Taiwan due to its handling of Covid-19. The incursion that took place last weekend was the largest incursion that has taken place over the past year—something that was likely deliberate, as it was also the first incursion by Chinese military aircraft into airspace near Taiwan since the Biden inauguration.

Consequently, the statement by the State Department “urges Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure, and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives.” The statement reiterated that the United States would continue to stand with democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific and its commitment to the “peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues,” with US-Taiwan ties maintained on the basis of the Three Communiques, Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances. This response by the Biden administration has been interpreted as a sign of continued American support for Taiwan.

With US-Taiwan ties having strengthened under former US President Donald Trump, and with the passage of legislation supportive of Taiwan as well as diplomatic visits to Taiwan by high-ranking government officials, it has been an open question as to whether or not the Biden administration would maintain the stepped-up US-Taiwan ties once in office.

At the same time, with many key foreign policy positions in the Biden administration occupied by China hawks, early signals are that the Biden administration will likely retain Trump era policy intended to put pressure on the mainland. However, the Biden administration is also expected to pursue a more multilateral approach to doing so, seeking to reestablish coordination with Asia-Pacific allies to deal with China, rather than taking unilateral action.

Last-minute actions by the Trump administration, such as declaring Chinese mass imprisonment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang to be genocide and lifting restrictions on diplomatic contacts with Taiwan, were probably intended to try and prevent the Biden administration from breaking away from the new precedents.

It remains to be seen to what extent the Biden administration maintains Trump-era policies. Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, was formally invited to Biden’s inauguration as the first representative of Taiwan to receive such an invitation since 1979—Taiwan’s representative usually attends American presidential inaugurations as the guest of a member of Congress.

Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has stated that he also takes the view that China’s actions in Xinjiang are genocide.

But if the Biden administration maintains strengthened diplomatic ties with Taiwan, or even continues to strengthen ties between the United States and Taiwan, it is more likely to articulate this as continuity with preexisting US policy, such as the aforementioned Three Communiques, Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances. This would differ from the Trump administration, which was more prone to articulate strengthening diplomatic ties with Taiwan as a break from prior policies—when former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lifted restrictions on diplomatic contacts with Taiwan, he claimed that he was breaking with precedents that previous administrations had intended to be part of “appeasing” China.

Yet precisely in order to contrast itself from the willful iconoclasm of the Trump administration, the Biden team will likely be less flashy than the Trump administration in how it conducts Taiwan policy—that is, even when it strengthens US-Taiwan ties, it will seek to be low-key about it.

The Biden administration is not likely to conduct high-level diplomatic visits with Taiwan merely for political grandstanding. At the same time, this may carry the disadvantage that some in Taiwan are likely to not to perceive Biden as strengthening US-Taiwan ties because of the lack of visibility.

Continued opacity regarding US-Taiwan trade relations under Biden could potentially have large effects in domestic Taiwanese politics, however. As stated by Biden’s nominee for treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, the Biden administration plans to prioritize fixing the American economy before pursuing free trade agreements with other countries. In signing a flurry of executive orders once in office aimed at reversing course from many of the actions of the Trump administration, the Biden administration will probably prioritize domestic policy in its early period before addressing foreign policy.

This could prove to be troublesome for the Tsai administration, which lifted restrictions on imports of Ractopamine-treated pork into Taiwan in the hopes of angling for a trade agreement between Taiwan and the United States. Given recurrent controversies in Taiwan in the past two decades regarding Ractopamine-treated pork imports, the Tsai administration staked much political capital on the issue, and it was likely hoping to swiftly sign an trade agreement with the United States in order for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party to tout it as a policy achievements going into 2024 elections.

Either way, China is likely to continue its efforts to militarily intimidate Taiwan. Following the statement by the US State Department, China sent fifteen warplanes into airspace near Taiwan, breaking the record for the number of planes sent as part of flyovers this year that had been set the previous day. The Biden administration subsequently deployed a US carrier group to the South China Sea.

This pattern of tit-for-tat escalation is likely to continue under the Biden administration. China will target Taiwan as a proxy for the United States to signal pressure on the Biden administration, while the Biden team will seek to avoid the appearance of weakness by making moves defending Taiwan. The dilemma of being caught between such escalatory moves by both countries returns Taiwan to its existential double-bind.

This article was originally published in New Bloom.

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