SNA (Tokyo) — The following stories were reported in the first half of September 2020 by the Shingetsu News Agency.

Rolling Coverage: Leadership Change

—Shinzo Abe has decided to use his last weeks in office to compile a plan on allowing Japan to conduct “preemptive” missile strikes on “enemy” bases: Not a plan for beating Covid-19; not a plan for the economy; no, he’s mostly interested in his toy soldiers, right to the end.

—145 ruling party lawmakers, or about one-third of the total, ask Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai to allow rank-and-file party members to vote in its upcoming leadership election. However, since this is expected to benefit Shigeru Ishiba’s candidacy, rejection is expected.

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has already effectively won the ruling party presidential election and is expected to become prime minister on September 17. He now has the backing of the Hosoda, Aso, and Nikai factions. Game over. Blink and you missed it.

—As expected, Liberal Democratic Party executives reject the option of letting rank-and-file party members vote for the new leader, so as to ensure that Shigeru Ishiba cannot make a good showing and is beaten decisively by Yoshihide Suga.

—Fumio Kishida to make a hopeless bid to run for leadership of the ruling party, relying on the support of his own faction. He is likely heading for an embarrassing result, but this was probably his best and only chance to become prime minister… before he let it slip away.

—The Liberal Democratic Party leadership “race” looks to be a three-way contest in which Yoshihide Suga wins a landslide over Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida in a process that cuts out rank-and-file members.

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga announces to the public his entry into a national leadership race that he has already won with the help of a handful of backroom power brokers.

—Shigeru Ishiba no longer the people’s choice to become the next prime minister. Now that the media has informed them that Yoshihide Suga is going to win, he has suddenly become the most popular choice.

—Yoshihide Suga makes clear that as prime minister he has no intention to reducing the 10% consumption tax, as the funds are needed to address the costs of the aging society and healthcare.

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga tells Kyodo News: “The next administration should not be an interim government.” Those who have been suggesting that Suga intends to be just a placeholder need to reevaluate. He may or may not last, but he intends to stay for years.

—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to use his last major public statement to outline his views on missile defense, once again demonstrating his fundamental indifference to matters that the public actually cares about, such as the cratering economy or the Covid-19 pandemic.

—So far Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga is sticking with all of the Abe government positions, including his defense of the Abe scandals and refusal to reinvestigate the Moritomo Gakuen affair. Of course, he hasn’t been elected yet.

—Japanese media outlets continue to behave as if the ruling party were having a competitive election in which three candidates are presenting three visions to decide between. In fact, factional politics decided that this would be a Yoshihide Suga blowout a week ago.

—Based on the most recent round of polls, the way for a prime minister to see a massive upward spike in the approval rate for their Cabinet is to announce their resignation. Not exactly sure how that should be interpreted.

—The Liberal Democratic Party leadership “race” begins with a huge majority already pledged to back Yoshihide Suga. Both Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida doing little more than embarrassing themselves by staying in a race in which only their own factions will vote for them.

—Soon-to-be-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga makes what seems to be a definitive statement that he won’t use his initial honeymoon period to call a snap general election: “The current situation does not allow for a dissolution.”

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, soon to become prime minister, says that the 10% consumption tax is still too low and will need to be raised further in coming years “after thoroughly implementing administrative reforms.”

—The signals being sent by Yoshihide Suga so far are remarkable. He seems intent to roll right over public opinion on various policy matters and even massively shake up the bureaucracy. This administration might turn out to be nasty, brutal, and short.

—Yoshihide Suga returns to issue of mobile phone fees: “It’s abnormal for Japan’s three carriers to reap profits of around 20% using public infrastructure. Utility and gas companies earn less than 10% because they return some of the proceeds to the public.”

—Realizing that his suggestion to raise the consumption tax above 10% is like expressing a political death wish in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated economic crisis, Yoshihide Suga now says the tax hike won’t be needed for at least 10 more years.

—Shinzo Abe appears to be signaling his intention to spend his post-premiership continuing to push his military policies on Japan, starting with missile defense (which may in fact move closer to a policy of missile offense).

—Shigeru Ishiba questions outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “preemptive” missile strike plans: “I don’t think Japan by itself can decide to launch missiles against enemies or their territories under the US-Japan Alliance.”

—With the top post effectively decided, attention in political circles is in reality now focusing on Yoshihide Suga’s inaugural Cabinet, especially the Chief Cabinet Secretary post. Said to be in the running: Moriyama, Hagiuda, Kajiyama, Kono, and Kato.

—Yoshihide Suga signals that he intends to continue shielding Shinzo Abe from his scandals such as the Moritomo Gakuen affair by refusing any new investigations. His opponents, Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba, both suggest they would allow a new investigation.

—As expected, the Liberal Democratic Party presidential race is a landslide for Yoshihide Suga, who gains 377 votes to Fumio Kishida’s 89 votes and Shigeru Ishiba’s 68 votes. As we noted days ago, all Kishida and Ishiba accomplished by running was to humiliate themselves.

—In a move that will surprise no one, LDP President Yoshihide Suga has already decided to retain Toshihiro Nikai as Secretary-General. It was Nikai, more than anyone, who guaranteed Suga’s landslide within a couple of days after Shinzo Abe’s resignation announcement.

—LDP President Yoshihide Suga has indicated that he will be prioritizing the establishment of a new digital agency. Suga is expected to focus on creating deeper coordination between government ministries, and digitization may be one of his key platforms for doing so.

—Yoshihide Suga’s criticism of high mobile phone fees mirrors the international progressive critique of crony capitalism in many countries: Suga is basically saying that these big corporations are using public assets in order to pocket private profits for themselves alone.

—There’s plenty of indications that for Japan residents one specific impact of Yoshihide Suga’s premiership will be a stronger push by the government that MyNumber cards be put into common use faster than would otherwise be the case.

—The key post of Chief Cabinet Secretary will go to Katsunobu Kato.

—Cabinet ministers expected to retain their current posts are Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Land Minister Kazuyoshi Akaba, and Olympics Minister Seiko Hashimoto.

—Several of the profiles of Yoshihide Suga make the same point that, unlike Shinzo Abe, he is basically non-ideological. He’s good at solving problems, but no one should expect any grand vision from him. This may be a problem now that he’s the top man and not the deputy.

Rolling Coverage: New Opposition Parties

—Congress of Industrial Unions of Japan to pull its 10 lawmakers out of the new opposition party scheme because the party is expected to embrace a zero nuclear policy. The pro-nuclear Federation of Electric Power-Related Industry Workers’ Unions of Japan is a key member. This is a fairly big development as it not only deprives the new merged opposition party of a significant number of lawmakers, but also gives Yuichiro Tamaki hope of building a viable centrist opposition party.

—The contest to become leader of the new merged opposition party looks set to become Yukio Edano vs. Kenta Izumi. Edano is expected to win easily, but former Democratic Party For the People lawmakers wanted one of their own in the race, thus the Izumi candidacy.

—There is a movement afoot to name the new merged party “Democratic Party of Japan,” dropping the “Constitutional” from the current name.

—There are 149 lawmakers planning to join the new merged opposition party, 88 from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, 40 from the Democratic Party For the People, and 21 independents.

—As for the Democratic Party For the People, of its 62 lawmakers, 40 are joining the new merged party and 22 are staying out. The group staying out is larger than expected because those fielded by or supporting pro-nuclear labor unions have decided to withdraw.

—Social Democratic Party planning to hold a vote in mid-November over whether or not to join the new merged opposition party. SDP lawmakers have been divided over this idea for quite some time, with Mizuho Fukushima known to be one of the most skeptical about the merger.

—It would appear that the name Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will be retained by the new merged opposition party. There will be an effort to return to the Democratic Party of Japan name, but it doesn’t appear that this movement has the votes to prevail.

—Yuichiro Tamaki’s rump Democratic Party For the People appears headed for some degree of viability, having collected 14 lawmakers. It will include lawmakers fielded by the pro-nuclear power labor unions, so an energy policy along those pro-nuclear lines is a certainty.

—Confirmed that a rump Democratic Party For the People will continue under Yuichiro Tamaki’s leadership. The current DPFP will divide its ¥4 billion in party funds proportionally between those who join the CDPJ and who remain in the DPFP. In the end, no party is disappearing.

—Initial polling shows a distinct lack of public enthusiasm for the new merged opposition party, with most respondents saying that they don’t expect that it will achieve very much.

—Yukio Edano easily defeats Kenta Izumi on a 107-42 vote to become leader of the new merged opposition party. By a closer vote of 94-55 the name of the party will remain Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and not return to the name Democratic Party of Japan.

—The new Democratic Party For the People suffers a blow before it is even born as Teruhiko Mashiko announces on Twitter that he has reversed course and decided not to participate, pointing to what he sees as problems in Yuichiro Tamaki’s leadership.

—New Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan executive line-up: Yukio Edano, president; Tetsuro Fukuyama, secretary-general; Kenta Izumi, policy chief; Hirofumi Hirano, election strategy chief; Jun Azumi, Diet affairs chief.

Politics

—A Hiroshima citizens group is rightfully angry that prosecutors have been declining to pursue charges against the hundred or so local conservative politicians who accepted bribes from Katsuyuki and Anri Kawai. Prosecutors have been acting like taking bribes is not a crime.

—The authorization has been finalized to hold the second popular referendum on the merger of Osaka prefecture and city into a single metropolis. The vote is likely to occur on November 1. This is the core policy of the Japan Innovation Party (Osaka Ishin).

—Hardly for the first time, Defense Ministry officials have been caught trying to keep the Defense Minister out of the loop regarding embarrassing information. In this case, they delayed for months telling Taro Kono about technical problems with their Aegis Ashore plans.

—Residents of Tokyo to be included in the “Go To Travel” subsidy campaign from October 1, according to the tourism minister.

International

—Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: “We want to establish a dialog on security problems in the region where Russia borders Japan. And we want to understand how Japan still views its obligations to the US in the military field in a situation where the US declares Russia an adversary… Japan says they will never do anything with the Americans against us, but they are in a close alliance and the United States considers us adversaries. We’ve got something to talk about. Transparency is important in questions of security… Japan joined sanctions that hinder economic cooperation and looks to the West, especially the US, when it comes to joint ventures in nanotechnology and other spheres of high technology.”

—Japan Communist Party’s Kazuo Shii criticizes Abe’s legacy on Russia, accusing Abe of “humiliating concessions” that overturned successive governments’ policies: “It will be a heavy burden for future Japan-Russia territorial talks. The damage to the national interest is immeasurable.”

—On peace treaty talks with Russia, Yoshihide Suga says “I’ll negotiate after clarifying the ownership of the four islands.” But asked if he intends to demand that Russia return the four islands, he avoided direct answer. Suga seems set to continue Abe’s two island approach.

—The MV Wakashio disaster has now taken human lives as well, as three or four sailors involved salvage work were caught in rough seas and drowned. Meanwhile, Japan is deploying another six-person team to cope with the consequences of the oil spill in Mauritius.

—The government of Mauritius has begun making specific requests of Japan in connection with the MV Wakashio oil spill, including one for US$34 million in aid to re-equip and train local fishermen.

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga suggests that Japan will offer to Mauritius medium and long-term support, not only to recover from the Japanese ship’s oil spill, but also wider areas of the island nation’s economy.

—Mitsui OSK Lines announces that it intends to spend about ¥1 billion (US$9.4 million) in aid for Mauritius in the wake of the MV Wakashio oil spill. Mitsui had chartered the ship for its ill-fated voyage. In part, the money is to be used for an environmental recovery fund.

—Tokyo Olympics CEO Toshiro Muto declares that the discovery of a Covid-19 vaccine is not a prerequisite for the Olympics to be held next year. He believes there is a possibility that the event can be held even in the absence of a coronavirus cure.

—The recent noises coming from the relevant authorities suggest that the Tokyo Olympics will be held next summer in one form or another, come what may with the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, the financial losses to Japan likely to be immense.

—Olympic Minister Seiko Hashimoto goes full irrational: “I think we have to hold the games at any cost… I want to concentrate all our efforts on measures against the coronavirus.”

—The outgoing Abe government proposing plan to build new warships built specifically to counter missiles with their own radar and missile launch systems. They will not have the anti-jet and anti-submarine capabilities of Japan’s current Aegis-equipped destroyers.

—Japan government expands list of countries from which travelers face eased Covid-19 entry restrictions. The complete list is now Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Singapore is likely to be added soon.

—Japan and India have signed a bilateral military agreement that allows the mutual sharing of ammunition, fuel, and food between the two forces, as well as the transportation of each other’s troops.

Economy

—Japan Atomic Energy Commission in what seems to be a losing battle to encourage more university students to study nuclear power as the industry is losing experts in the field. Opposition parties want all nuclear power gone by 2030, so it seems unlikely students will line up.

—Kamoenai village becomes the second economically-desperate municipality in Hokkaido to consider applying to host a final disposal facility for high-level radioactive waste. The other municipality, Suttsu, is facing a lot of political blowback but is still considering it.

—Japanese government is sticking with its half-hearted and contradictory campaign to become a “financial hub” in Asia by attracting businesses fleeing from Hong Kong. The basic concept has merit, but not all parts of government are pulling in the same direction. Put another way, the Japanese government wants the business and especially the prestige of being the leading financial hub in Asia, but has nearly zero commitment to rethinking how it would need to empower foreign residents or even change its own banking system in response.

—UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at Japan-hosted online climate change meeting: “It makes no sense economically to burn money on coal plants that will soon become stranded assets… There is simply no rational case for coal power in any investment plan.”

—US court rules that Michael Taylor and his son Peter Taylor can be extradited to Japan for allegedly helping Carlos Ghosn escape the country. The final decision is in the hands of the State Department. The toll of the nationalist Nissan coup continues to grow.

—Nissan executive Greg Kelly’s trial has begun. He pleads Not Guilty to charges that he conspired with Carlos Ghosn to cover up the true amount of Ghosn’s financial compensation.

—The basic terms for the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement have reportedly been reached, which will become the Johnson government’s first major trade agreement since Brexit was legally effected.

GreenTech

—Another climate change record established in Japan today. Sanjo city, Niigata Prefecture, hits 40 degrees Celsius, the first time ever in modern times for a location in Japan to hit that high in the month of September.

Society

—In an alarming story, a freight ship with 43 crew members and about 5,800 head of cattle has gone “missing” in rough seas near Kagoshima Prefecture. The MSDF discovered a lifeboat and only one person from the ship. Most of the crew are Filipino.

—The situation really isn’t looking good for the ship Gulf Livestock 1. With a crew of 43 people, only one has been rescued, and dead cows are floating in the seas. The facts suggest that the ship sank, and 42 people and about 6,000 cattle are dead.

—As for the crew of the ship Gulf Livestock 1. Of the 43 people on board at the time of the apparent wreck, two have now been rescued, one found unconscious and later died, and forty are missing. It seems all 6,000 cows have drowned.

—Efforts to find survivors among the Gulf Livestock 1 crew have been fully suspended due to the approach of Typhoon No. 10 (Typhoon Haishen). It would seem that the final toll is likely to be 2 survivors and 41 dead, unless more survivors somehow made it to land somewhere.

—If and when a Covid-19 vaccine is found and produced, the Japanese government may offer it to all residents free of charge.

—Japan’s first permanent LGBTQ rights center, Pride House Tokyo, planning to launch on October 11 to coincide with International Coming Out Day.

—Households that applied for and received the 100,000 yen Covid-19 relief payment has now crossed the 99.5% threshold. Basically, the government ought to have done what it did in 2008 and make the payments automatic, but instead wasted time with unneeded paperwork.

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