New Bloom (Kaohsiung) — Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu was successfully recalled. Han was defeated by an overwhelming margin, with 939,090 votes in favor of his recall and 25,051 votes against his recall, out of a total of 969,259 individuals that voted.

97.4% of those who voted were in favor of Han being recalled, while only 2.6% of voters were against the recall. 42.1% of Kaohsiung’s electorate participated in the recall vote. This is the first successful recall vote of a standing politician after the threshold required to hold a recall vote was lowered in November 2016, as well as the first mayoral recall held in Taiwanese history.

For Han to be successfully recalled, it required 25% of Kaohsiung’s total electorate to participate in the recall vote for the results to be binding. As such, this required approximately 590,000 votes.

It was generally thought that the majority of Kaohsiung voters would be in support of recalling Han. The second stage of a recall vote required organizers to collect the signatures of 10% of the electorate, which would be 228,000 signatures. Organizers were in fact able to obtain over 450,000 signatures. Likewise, demonstrations calling for Han’s recall in December saw over 500,000 participants, and polling indicated that a majority of Kaohsiung voters disapproved of Han.

But, even if it was known that Kaohsiung voters were likely in favor of recalling Han, it was a question as to whether or not enough Kaohsiung voters would actually participate in the recall vote. It was questioned as to whether the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic might result in voters being unwilling to go out to vote, though the pandemic is largely under control in Taiwan. Likewise, the day saw heavy rain, raising further questions about turnout. Han himself instructed his supporters to not participate.

The results of the vote were clear approximately seventy minutes after polls closed, with it rapidly becoming clear that the necessary benchmark had been exceeded. At the same time, the fact that so many residents turned out to vote was surprising. More people voted for Han’s recall than had voted for him in the 2018 mayoral elections.

Han’s election victory in 2018 was a surprise, since Kaohsiung is traditionally thought of as favoring the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Han was elevated from political obscurity to political superstardom overnight and became popularly thought of as an unorthodox candidate who might even be able to turn the Nationalist Party (KMT) around at a time in which the fortunes of the party seemed to be flagging, particularly because of its inability to appeal to young people. As a result, Han became the KMT’s presidential candidate in the 2020 presidential elections.

Yet Han later saw a reversal of his political fortunes. He was defeated by a large margin in the 2020 presidential elections, though he did increase the KMT’s vote share by around two million votes compared to 2016 presidential elections. In particular, Han came under fire for poor administration of the Kaohsiung City Government, numerous gaffes, and being unable to fulfill unrealistic campaign promises such as constructing a ferris wheel on the Love River or bringing Disneyland to Kaohsiung, and taking three months off as mayor in order to campaign for president. Han took a conciliatory stance in the past months, apologizing for his failings, and seeking to keep a low profile.

In the wake of an unexpectedly large recall victory, the progressive civil society groups that organized the recall have hailed the victory as a step forward for Taiwanese democracy.

Progressive civil society groups had historically called for the lowering of benchmarks to hold political referendums in Taiwan as a means to recall corrupt, Pan-Blue politicians, as most prominently observed in the Appendectomy Project, an initiative that took place after the 2014 Sunflower Movement. But after civil society groups were successful in lowering the benchmarks needed to hold recall votes in November 2016, the first politician to face a recall vote ended up being Huang Kuo-chang of the New Power Party (NPP), a “Third Force” party which had emerged after the Sunflower Movement. Huang was targeted by conservative Christian groups because of his support of gay marriage, but the recall vote was unsuccessful because not enough voters participated. Ironically, the NPP had been among those to call for the threshold needed to hold a referendum to be lowered.

Progressive civil society groups have also hailed the success of the Han Kuo-yu recall vote. The primary groups that organized the referendum were WeCare Kaohsiung, Citizens Moving Action, and the Taiwan Statebuilding Party, which has grown substantially in southern Taiwan in the past year due to opposition against Han.

Civil society groups alleged attempts by the Kaohsiung City Government to interfere with the recall vote before it took place, stating that the city government had taken down ads supportive of the recall, while it left up ads supportive of Han, pressured advertisers to refuse ads critical of Han, and imposed arbitrary fines on WeCare Kaohsiung. Civil society groups also criticized the Kaohsiung City Government for seeking to reduce the number of polling stations using the pretext of measures against Covid-19.

In an international press conference held after the success of the recall vote, WeCare Kaohsiung’s four leading figures, the so-called “Four Gentlemen,” called for Kaohsiung citizens to embrace unity, not political division, including for those who had supported Han. WeCare Kaohsiung representatives stated that Kaohsiung citizens should take the high moral ground instead of leveraging political division in the manner of Han Kuo-yu.

Moreover, WeCare Kaohsiung stated that the success of the recall vote was a means by which Taiwanese citizens had rejected the KMT, and China behind it. WeCare Kaohsiung representatives noted that Han had been aided in his initial election victory by disinformation of Chinese origin, but that Kaohsiung voters’ rejection of Kaohsiung represented how Taiwanese had now “said no” to China.

Han held a press conference after it became clear that he had been recalled, thanking his supporters. It is possible that Han will try to overturn the results of the recall vote through a legal challenge. Past KMT politicians, such as Taipei mayoral candidate Ting Shou-chung, have refused to accept the results of elections in the past by filing legal challenges, something that required a recount in the 2018 Taipei mayoral election.

If Han does not challenge the recall vote, he would be replaced by an acting mayor appointed by the Executive Yuan until a by-election is held. This election should occur within three months. If Han challenges the vote, he will still be replaced by an acting mayor appointed by the Executive Yuan, and the by-election will be delayed until a ruling is made on his challenge.

This article was originally published in New Bloom.

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