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Expanding the State of Emergency

SNA (Tokyo) — The following stories were reported in the last half of April 2020 by the Shingetsu News Agency.

Rolling Coverage: Covid-19

—Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike preparing an ¥800 billion (US$7.5 billion) emergency spending package for Covid-19 economic relief measures. This to include a counseling center to provide assistance in fourteen languages for foreign nationals living in Tokyo.

—Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, who describes the Abe government’s refusal to compensate businesses as “negligence,” preparing a ¥1 million yen (US$9,300) each Covid-19 crisis support scheme for small businesses in his prefecture.

—The Abe government reportedly “considering” expanding the official “state of emergency” declaration to Aichi and Hokkaido (which already declared their own state of emergency) as well as to Kyoto Prefecture, which has asked the central government to do so.

—The Shinzo Abe government has reportedly decided to expand its “state of emergency” from the seven current prefectures to cover the entire nation (as it should have done from the beginning). They have come to realize that some people are moving between prefectures.

—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally announces that the national “state of emergency” now covers the entire nation, not just the seven prefectures. The ending date for the emergency period remains unchanged, May 6.

—Osaka becomes the second prefecture in Japan to cross the 1,000 total confirmed Covid-19 cases mark, following Tokyo. Other major urban prefectures trail behind.

—The main factor, apparently, triggering Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to expand the “state of emergency” nationwide at this juncture are worries that Tokyoites will travel en masse to the countryside during Golden Week and spread the infection with abandon.

—Kamakura city in Kanagawa Prefecture has a message for tourists: Go home, you are not welcome here at this time. Mayor Takashi Matsuo explains, “As a tourist spot, it breaks my heart to say this, but it’s important to prevent the further spread of the virus.”

—Yamato city in Kanagawa Prefecture passes nation’s first municipal ordinance urging all residents to wear face masks. There is no sanction for flouting the ordinance, but it strengthens social pressure against those who don’t wear them.

—One point now fully confirmed is that the universal ¥100,000 payment is indeed intended as a replacement, not a supplement, for the earlier scheme to offer ¥300,000 in aid to households hit by major Covid-19 related income losses. Calls for more support already arising.

—The extension of the “state of emergency” to the whole nation is piling pressure on the Abe government to offer credible financial support measures to businesses, especially SMEs. Many poorer rural prefectures cannot afford their own programs like that of Tokyo or Aichi.

—Governors of rural prefectures pleading with the Abe government to send a strong public message that residents of major cities should not pour out into the countryside this year, as is customary during the Golden Week holidays.

—Finance Minister Taro Aso indicates that to receive their ¥100,000, each and every person in Japan is required to go through some kind of application process, rather than simply delivering the money automatically. Seems to be another way of reducing government expenditure.

—Women’s Empowerment Minister Seiko Hashimoto announces that the domestic violence hotline to begin offering 24-hour services across all parts of the nation.

—Persol Research and Consulting survey estimates that 58.5% of regular workers in the seven prefectures that have been under the state of emergency since April 7 still go into the office each day. Using personal seals (hanko) and fax machines remain a key reason.

—Japan’s major general contractors announcing that they will be suspending construction projects for several weeks across the nation as a result of the “state of emergency” declaration. Obviously, this means many planned construction projects will be delayed.

—Tochigi Governor Tomikazu Fukuda has suggested that the national government should consider legislation to prevent Japanese people from freely crossing prefectural borders. This proposal highly likely to go nowhere, but a governor has now actually said such a thing.

—Despite the extension of the “state of emergency” across the nation, at least sixteen prefectures have no plans to ask their local businesses to suspend operations. All 47 prefectures are taking 47 different stances on how to implement the policies, and the support measures

—Komeito Party played a huge role in forcing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to change his policy to a ¥100,000 to all Japan residents. Apparently, they went so far as to threaten to withdraw from the ruling coalition unless they got their way, and a now-weak Shinzo Abe crumbled.

—Research Institute for Advancement of Living Standards survey finds that 56.8% of student workers and 52.7% of dispatch workers say their incomes have declined under the Covid-19 crisis. Part-time workers are always the economic victims in Japan, but now it is much worse.

—Tokyo Metropolitan Government admits that more hospitals are rejecting suspected Covid-19 patients and this is becoming a problem. And the number of new patients is still modest compared to harder hit nations like those in Europe or the United States.

—The Abe government relents to demands from prefectural governors and reveals that it will divert some funds to the prefectures to allow them to provide financial aid to small businesses that comply with “state of emergency” suspension of operations requests.

—Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura says that the government has secured 210,000 hotel rooms nationwide to house Covid-19 patients with no symptoms or weak symptoms.

—The ill-fated Abenomasks initiative becomes even more of a fiasco as complaints pour in that some of the masks arrive with stains and dust on them. While most of the masks seem to be fine, the complaints are getting a lot of attention.

—Liberal Democratic Party policy chief Fumio Kishida tells an Asahi television program that the government is investigating the possibility of allowing some businesses, especially restaurants, delay or reduce rent payments during the Covid-19 crisis.

—Abe government has decided that there will be a three-month deadline to apply for the ¥100,000 Covid-19 relief payment, the clock starting from the day that local governments send the application forms in the mail to each household.

—Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Secretary-General Tetsuro Fukuyama: “The ¥300,000 Covid-19 aid scheme should be maintained as it is designed to address steep income drops, and it is different from the ¥100,000 handout in terms of its role.”

—Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura has singled out pachinko parlors as a class of businesses where there have been many cases of defiance of business suspension requests. The government may start naming and shaming some of these firms.

—Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike: “Supermarkets have become very crowded. We are urgently considering certain countermeasures, including the possibility of restricting the number of people who can enter at one time, and the spaces between people waiting in line.”

—Costa Atlantica, an Italian cruise ship docked for repairs at Nagasaki city, has confirmed that 34 of its crew members have tested positive for Covid-19 infection.

—Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly approves Governor Koike’s plan to offer up to ¥500,000 in Covid-19 aid to small businesses with one outlet; double that amount for those with multiple outlets. The national government is mostly leaving small business support to the prefectures.

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga refutes criticism that the government’s measures are insufficient: “We hear a lot of voices from restaurants are others wanting us to do something about personnel costs and rent, but this is included in the current economic measures.”

—The half-hearted and chaotically implemented “state of emergency” in Japan may end up producing the worst of both worlds: Doing massive economic damage while not really containing the coronavirus. In practice, “Stay at Home” has become “Stay in Your Neighborhood.” History is unlikely to view kindly the fact that Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura spent the early days of his mandate to implement the “state of emergency” trying to prevent Governor Koike from taking more decisive action. The message of urgency was compromised from the start.

—Survey conducted by CrowdWorks finds that more than 65% of Japanese who describe themselves as “freelancers” have suffered income losses from the Covid-19 crisis. Freelancers tend to be group worldwide that fall through the cracks of government economic support.

—Yasutoshi Nishimura: “The number of new infections is increasing, including rural areas. I feel a sense of crisis that efforts are inadequate to cause a decrease. A large number of people are visiting tourist spots such as parks, coasts, supermarkets, shopping districts.” Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, of course, is the very same man whose main priority at the outset of the “state of emergency” was to sabotage Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s plans to execute a stricter lockdown. Now he says current efforts “inadequate.”

—Signals are emerging that more than halfway into the initial “state of emergency” period (April 7-May 6) that the Abe government is starting to wake up to the true seriousness of the issue and that more robust national policies are being discussed.

—Human Rights Watch sends letter to Justice Minister Masako Mori: “The Japanese government should significantly reduce the population of jails, prisons, and other detention centers where the risk of Covid-19 spreading is high.” Human Rights Watch Japan Director Kanae Doi: “An outbreak of Covid-19 in Japan’s prisons could be deadly… Being jailed or imprisoned in Japan effectively should not become a death sentence because of Covid-19.”

—National Governors’ Association proposes drastic measures to stop people from traveling during the Golden Week holidays, including restrictions on the use of national highways.

—More critical focus being put on the Abe government’s Covid-19 strategy, which has involved limiting coronavirus testing as a means to keep pressure off of hospitals rather than prioritizing widespread testing which aims to better identify infection routes.

—Criticism is rising that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his administration may be overselling the effectiveness of Avigan, Japan’s candidate drug to treat Covid-19. Like many remedies being pushed by US President Donald Trump, the scientific verdict is not yet in.

—Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike urges the residents of the metropolis to limit their visits to the market to once in three days as a way to reduce crowding in the shopping aisles. Other measures may come later, but they under consideration. Meanwhile, Osaka Mayor Ichiro Matsui suggested that one way to reduce congestion at markets is to let men do the shopping because women take more time to decide. When a reporter pointed out that was a sexist remark, he immediately backed off the idea.

—Among East Asian nations, Japan has now reclaimed its spot as the No. 2 coronavirus hotspot. There are now more confirmed infections in Japan than in South Korea, something which would have seemed highly unlikely to occur a month ago.

—An extension of the national “state of emergency” period is now being described as “likely” and even “unavoidable.” There are indications that Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike’s measures did slow the spread of coronavirus, but many new cases are still being confirmed.

—Jiji Press survey finds that 40 of the 47 prefectures have requested business closures over the Covid-19 “state of emergency” (meaning its business as usual in seven prefectures), and 35 of the 40 are offering some kind of financial aid to suspended businesses.

—Kyodo News reports not only are Japan’s frontline Covid-19 medical workers not being celebrated for their heroism, their families are being stigmatized as potential virus carriers, with cases of nurseries telling them not to send their children. Some medical workers are quitting.

—Opposition parties calling for a revision of the budget to provide rent relief for businesses being hit by the Covid-19 crisis. The Abe government continues to reject such notions, but as the closures drag on they are likely to be forced to start responding to SME collapses.

—While no decisions have been made, it appears that the Abe government is leaning toward extending the “state of emergency” past May 6, but only for a relatively short period. A long extension would not let them bury their heads in the sand about the economic consequences.

—Day care and short-stay facilities for the elderly have largely remained open during the “state of emergency” at the urging of the Health Ministry. It has been judged that having too many elderly living alone without support is more dangerous than Covid-19 infection risks.

—Osaka Mayor Ichiro Matsui rages about defiant pachinko parlors: “To prevent gambling addiction, we should reconsider the grey regulations governing the pachinko industry… Diet lawmakers, please begin debating about pachinko as a form of gambling, and not as an amusement.”

—Enough data is now in to clearly suggest that the declaration of the “state of emergency” on April 7 did have a significant effect. The rate of the infection growth peaked around April 15 (about when you would expect), and has been declining fairly steadily since that time.

—Ishikawa Governor Masanori Tanimoto calls for the first deployment of the Self-Defense Forces in relation to the Covid-19 crisis. He wants their support for the transportation of lodging facilities.

—Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Edano criticizes the government for failing to adequately support small businesses: “It’s a pity that they make statements that demonstrate only that they don’t understand the seriousness of the situation.”

—Japan expanding its outright ban on entry to a further fourteen nations, including neighbor Russia. There are now 87 nations and regions from which Japan is no longer accepting travelers.

—Tokyo Shoko Research finds that the number of small companies pushed into bankruptcy over the Covid-19 crisis has now passed the one hundred mark, and the pace is accelerating. Hotels, restaurants, and retail clothing among the most common types of business collapses.

—Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai says that it is unrealistic to try to reopen the nation’s schools in May, and that school reopenings should be delayed until September. Some opposition party politicians have been making the same suggestion.

—Five opposition parties jointly submit a bill that calls for struggling businesses to gain support in paying their rent during the coronavirus crisis. The lack of a credible plan from the government is encouraging others to step forward with their plans.

—Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura suggests that if pachinko parlors remain defiant of their governors, then it may be time to move forward with legislation that hits these businesses with harsher penalties than the current name and shame policy.

—When questioned in the Diet about offering rent payment support to businesses, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe replied, “If further measures prove to be necessary, I will move forward with them without hesitation.” His view seems to be that the crisis isn’t deep enough yet.

—Opposition parties’ proposal to begin the school year in September is receiving mixed reactions, with some ruling party lawmakers such as Hiroshige Seko opposing it, but the Abe government not immediately ruling out the idea.

—Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Organising Committee President Yoshiro Mori admits that if Covid-19 prevents the Games from being held next summer as currently planned, the next step will be to cancel them altogether. There can be no more delays.

—National Governors’ Association advises the Abe government to extend the national “state of emergency” beyond May 6, and it also recommends serious consideration of starting the school year in September.

—At this point it seems a foregone conclusion that the “state of emergency” will be extended beyond May 6, with medical experts, prefectural governors, and many national lawmakers advising an extension. There seems to be no prominent voice calling for sticking to May 6.

—Japan Medical Association President Yoshitake Yokokura says that he doesn’t believe that the Tokyo Olympics will be able to be held next year unless a Covid-19 vaccine is discovered and distributed in the meantime.

—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe admits in Diet debate that if requests for businesses to remain closed endure beyond May 6, then the national government will have to consider new measures for economic support for SMEs.

—Opposition parties call for legislation to provide economic support to university students, some of whom are being forced to drop out of school because they can no longer afford tuition and other expenses.

—Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike advocates changing start of school year to September permanently: “If the new semester starts in September, kindergarten, elementary schools, high schools, and job hunting will change. It will be a chance to change society greatly.”

—Reiwa Shinsengumi taking a different line from other opposition parties and will vote against the latest Covid-19 economic relief budget. They are arguing that it is “entirely insufficient” and it is better to hold out for a real package of economic support for the people.

—Prime Minister Shinzo Abe now more-or-less acknowledging that the “state of emergency” will not end on May 6. His government is still debating the length of the extension (one additional month seen as most likely) and whether or not to limit its geographical scope.

Rolling Coverage: US-Japan Relations

—The Defense Ministry’s unprecedented public demand to enter Marine Corp Air Station Futenma to investigate a spillage of toxic PFOS by US Marines was met with an unprecedented approval. Six Japanese government officials were allowed on the base to investigate the matter.

—A team of ten national and local officials were allowed to enter Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and collect water samples regarding the toxic PFOS spillage. The US military reportedly did not permit them to collect soil samples as well.

—Foreign Ministry survey of public opinion on Japan’s diplomacy: Conducted in March, survey finds that 68.9% give positive assessment to US-Japan security arrangements; 76.1% positively assess the government’s efforts to promote free trade.

—The Defense Ministry has applied to the Okinawa Prefectural Government to do additional landfill work at Henoko in light of the discovery of soft earth at the construction site. Okinawa is expected to reject the application, leading to another case before the supine courts.

—US Defense Department says test of SM-3 Block IIA to be conducted this summer. For the first time, this US-Japan jointly developed interceptor will be tested against a missile simulating an ICBM. Previously it has been tested against SRBMs and IRBMs.

Politics

—Social Democratic Party leader Mizuho Fukushima makes it clear that all talks on a possible merger with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan are off the table for the foreseeable future. The small opposition parties to remain divided.

—Abe Death Watch: His political blood is now in the water and the sharks are circling. The chances are now better than even that the Shinzo Abe government, which lasted longer than any other in modern Japanese history, is on its last legs. The beginning of the end came silently sometime last autumn, when a serious rift opened between Shinzo Abe and his closest political partner, Yoshihide Suga, over the question of the future prime ministerial succession. Once the Abe-Suga rift occurred, the government was no longer fully functional, and Abe began relying on close aides and allies for support, but was no longer in full command of Japanese government bureaucracy, which usually looked to Suga. Meanwhile, Shinzo Abe’s own credibility continued to take serious hits with the cherry blossom viewing scandal, the casino bribery scandal, and the reemergence of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal. With his rather inept handling of the Covid-19 crisis, including such widely mocked initiatives as the Abenomasks and his ill-conceived stay-at-home video, Shinzo Abe has become a laughing stock to much of the public, dooming him further. It has become clear that Shinzo Abe’s clout has fallen to the point that even the Komeito Party is no longer staying in line, nor is the Finance Ministry, the business lobby, nor the prefectural governors. There is a vacuum at the top. Governments simply cannot endure much longer when they are no longer able to command even their own forces. Maybe weeks, maybe months, but this looks very much like the political crisis that will finally bring the curtains down on the Shinzo Abe regime.

—Nuclear industry corruption wins again in Japan. Yutaka Nose reelected mayor of Takahama town in spite of being linked to the enormous KEPCO bribery scandal, which prosecutors also refuse to pursue in spite of guilt being admitted. Perverse incentives for bribery to go on.

—Reporters Without Borders: World No. 66 for press freedom for Japan “where newsrooms are still heavily influenced by management within the ‘keiretsu,’ the conglomerates that own the media in Japan, which put their business interests first.”

—In the Shizuoka No. 4 District House of Representatives by-election, the ruling party candidate defeated the united opposition candidate, demonstrating the continued weakness of the opposition parties even as the Abe government is in deep decline.

International

—Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga states that Japan supports Taiwan’s application to have observer status at the World Health Organization.

—Two million face masks donated by Taiwan to Japan have arrived at Narita Airport, earmarked for delivery to hospitals and schools. Japanese and Taiwanese diplomats gathered at the airport for the arrival.

—There is either a disagreement between the Abe government and the International Olympic Committee over who pays what costs for the delay of the Tokyo Olympics, or else a massive failure of communication between Abe and Suga. Both are plausible scenarios at present.

—Russian customs have confiscated 1000 liters of alcohol being smuggled from Japan to Kunashir on a Russian fishing vessel. The items included Japanese whiskey, vodka, wine, beer. The border area between Japan and Russia has long featured smuggling and poaching.

Economy

—JR Hokkaido, always the weakest financially of the former Japan National Railways companies, announces that it is putting 20% of its workforce, almost 1,500 people, on leave. The firm says that the lower numbers of passengers due to Covid-19 is putting it in jeopardy.

—Uber Eats is expanding quickly under the current conditions, now with more than 20,000 restaurants in its Japan network. This month they have launched/will launch services in Sendai, Kurume, Kitakyushu, Kanazawa, and Toyama.

—Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) chief Hiroaki Nakanishi denounces personal seals (hanko): “They are complete nonsense. Just leave them be as art pieces… The culture of relying on hanko as an identification system does not suit the digital age.”

Society

—Sakura Tulip Festa in Chiba Prefecture was drawing large crowds of Japanese tourists in spite of the supposed national lockdown, so the Sakura City Tourism Association snipped the 800,000 tulips to ensure there was nothing to look at.

—Some Japanese schools and other workplaces are insisting that only white face masks are acceptable, in spite of national shortages. These educators and employers appear to believe that permitting the use of colored masks will lead to a breakdown of social order.

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